Monday, April 13, 2020

Sport :- Premier League without VAR, What is the hope of Manchester United?

April 13, 2020 Liverpool, Old Trafford, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, Premier League, sport news, VAR decision

Premier League without VAR: Man Utd fall to 10th; Liverpool still far ahead

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has received all the kudos for reviving Man United's season and pulling them back into Champions League contention, but maybe fans should be praising VAR rather than OGS.

That is because no Premier League team has benefited from Video Assistant Referee decisions more than Manchester United this season. With VAR, Solskjaer's men are fifth in the table, on 45 points, which is five points and five places better than they would be without it.

In a world without VAR, Man United drop from a Champions League position in fifth -- the top four qualify, but due to Man City's European ban, fifth is in play -- to the mid-table obscurity of 10th, making them the lowest-placed of "Big Six" clubs and just about holding onto a spot in the top half.

Meanwhile, runaway leaders Liverpool have gained just two points from VAR overturns; with a 25-point lead, Jurgen Klopp's team has played so well as to render VAR irrelevant to their title ambitions. Second place Manchester City have lost five points due to VAR decisions, but still remain 18 points adrift (our previous update had the gap at 13 points).

Those headlines are among the results of analysis from ESPN and the team led by Thomas Curran at the London School of Economics, whose Anti-VAR Index shows how the league would look without video review.

Their algorithm is about more than simply removing goals to get the amended results; it takes into account factors such as the state of the game at the point of the VAR incident in question, plus a team's form, performance and relative strength, which generate a new set of results based on probability of outcome.

VAR helped Man United gain a point from likely defeats against Liverpool and at Everton, and also led to victories at Man City and Chelsea.

Liverpool fans will remember Sadio Mane having a goal disallowed for handball at Old Trafford, a game that ended in a draw, but the Anti-VAR Index rules as an away win. Man United were drawing at Man City until Marcus Rashford won a penalty after a review; our algorithm rules they would have lost that game without VAR.

What of Chelsea having two goals for Kurt Zouma and Olivier Giroud disallowed as Man United won 2-0 at Stamford Bridge? That becomes a draw. Then there's Everton's injury-time "winner" at Goodison Park when the VAR ruled Gylfi Sigurdsson was offside and obscuring the view of David De Gea. The game finished as a draw, but the Anti-VAR Index says Everton win.